Doug McNeallMet Office
Doug McNeall is a climate scientist working at the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter. Doug uses surrogate models of computationally expensive climate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ), climate projection, and in order find new ways to improve our understanding of the climate system |
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TalksWill a climate simulation run?23-Apr-24We classify the input parameter space of land surface simulator JULES-ES-1.0 using a random forest classifier, and calculate a probability that the simulator will fail at any chosen input parameter set. We test the predictive power and accuracy of the classifier, using a range of methods. We use the classifier to quantify the importance of each of the input parameters for determining simulator crashes, and discuss what this reveals about the relationship between the simulator and the real system. Finally, we discuss how this informs climate modellers how best to tackle underlying structural errors in the climate simulators. |