Within and between classroom transmission patterns of seasonal influenza inform management of COVID-19 in schools
The rapid growth of COVID-19 outbreak has forced many countries to close schools to prevent the spread of the disease among students. Although this may have been necessary to mitigate the initial impact of the epidemic, extended school closures can cause detrimental effects on both students and their households, and now some countries including the UK have been planning to reopen schools. Such policies need be accompanied by a strategy to minimise the risk of school outbreaks, however, the transmission dynamics within students, e.g. how students may transmit the disease within and between classes is not well known. As a result, it is uncertain whether the currently discussed measures, including reducing classes or limiting the number of students attending schools, would have expected prevent effects on transmission. To answer these questions, we developed a mathematical model stratifying contacts within and between classes and applied it to the previous school influenza outbreak data. Using the estimated intensity of transmission in schools with different class sizes and student populations, we discuss the possible effects of intervention measures against school outbreaks of COVID-19.
Healthy world Policy and governance